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Beyond the Hype: Comparing Lightweight and Deep Learning Models for Air Quality Forecasting

Gondal, Moazzam Umer, Qudous, Hamad ul, Farhan, Asma Ahmad

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution is essential for protecting public health and guiding mitigation policies. While Deep Learning (DL) and hybrid pipelines dominate recent research, their complexity and limited interpretability hinder operational use. This study investigates whether lightweight additive models -- Facebook Prophet (FBP) and NeuralProphet (NP) -- can deliver competitive forecasts for particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$, PM$_{10}$) in Beijing, China. Using multi-year pollutant and meteorological data, we applied systematic feature selection (correlation, mutual information, mRMR), leakage-safe scaling, and chronological data splits. Both models were trained with pollutant and precursor regressors, with NP additionally leveraging lagged dependencies. For context, two machine learning baselines (LSTM, LightGBM) and one traditional statistical model (SARIMAX) were also implemented. Performance was evaluated on a 7-day holdout using MAE, RMSE, and $R^2$. Results show that FBP consistently outperformed NP, SARIMAX, and the learning-based baselines, achieving test $R^2$ above 0.94 for both pollutants. These findings demonstrate that interpretable additive models remain competitive with both traditional and complex approaches, offering a practical balance of accuracy, transparency, and ease of deployment.


Proactive Statistical Process Control Using AI: A Time Series Forecasting Approach for Semiconductor Manufacturing

Seeam, Mohammad Iqbal Rasul, Sheng, Victor S.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the manufacturing industry, it is very important to keep machines and processes running smoothly and without unexpected problems. One of the most common tools used to check if everything is working properly is called Statistical Process Control (SPC). Traditional SPC methods work by checking whether recent measurements are within acceptable limits. However, they only react after a problem has already occurred. This can lead to wasted materials, machine downtime, and increased costs. In this paper, we present a smarter way to use SPC. Instead of just reacting to issues after they happen, our system can predict future problems before they occur. We use a machine learning tool called Facebook Prophet, which is designed to work with time-series data (data that changes over time). Prophet looks at past data and forecasts what the next value will be. Then, we use SPC rules to decide if the predicted value is in a Safe zone (no problem), a Warning zone (needs attention), or a Critical zone (may require shutting down the process). We applied this system to real data from a semiconductor manufacturing company. One of the challenges with this data is that the measurements are not taken at regular time intervals. This makes it harder to predict future values accurately. Despite this, our model was able to make strong predictions and correctly classify the risk level of future measurements. The main benefit of our system is that it gives engineers and technicians a chance to act early - before something goes wrong. This helps reduce unexpected failures and improves the overall stability and reliability of the production process. By combining machine learning with traditional SPC, we make quality control more proactive, accurate, and useful for modern industry.


When Simpler Wins: Facebooks Prophet vs LSTM for Air Pollution Forecasting in Data-Constrained Northern Nigeria

Balogun, Habeeb, Zakari, Yahaya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air pollution forecasting is critical for proactive environmental management, yet data irregularities and scarcity remain major challenges in low-resource regions. Northern Nigeria faces high levels of air pollutants, but few studies have systematically compared the performance of advanced machine learning models under such constraints. This study evaluates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and the Facebook Prophet model for forecasting multiple pollutants (CO, SO2, SO4) using monthly observational data from 2018 to 2023 across 19 states. Results show that Prophet often matches or exceeds LSTM's accuracy, particularly in series dominated by seasonal and long-term trends, while LSTM performs better in datasets with abrupt structural changes. These findings challenge the assumption that deep learning models inherently outperform simpler approaches, highlighting the importance of model-data alignment. For policymakers and practitioners in resource-constrained settings, this work supports adopting context-sensitive, computationally efficient forecasting methods over complexity for its own sake.


News-Driven Stock Price Forecasting in Indian Markets: A Comparative Study of Advanced Deep Learning Models

Attaluri, Kaushal, Tripathi, Mukesh, Reddy, Srinithi, Shivendra, null

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting stock market prices remains a complex challenge for traders, analysts, and engineers due to the multitude of factors that influence price movements. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) have significantly enhanced stock price prediction capabilities. AI's ability to process vast and intricate data sets has led to more sophisticated forecasts. However, achieving consistently high accuracy in stock price forecasting remains elusive. In this paper, we leverage 30 years of historical data from national banks in India, sourced from the National Stock Exchange, to forecast stock prices. Our approach utilizes state-of-the-art deep learning models, including multivariate multi-step Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Facebook Prophet with LightGBM optimized through Optuna, and Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). We further integrate sentiment analysis from tweets and reliable financial sources such as Business Standard and Reuters, acknowledging their crucial influence on stock price fluctuations.


Using Time Series Analysis to predict NIFTY50 movements

#artificialintelligence

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark broad based stock market index for the Indian equity market. Full form of NIFTY is National Stock Exchange Fifty. It represents the weighted average of 50 Indian company stocks in 12 sectors and is one of the two main stock indices used in India, the other being the BSE Sensex. In this blog, we will see how we can use the various Time Series algorithms to predict how the NIFTY50 index will move over the next 30 days. To download the data, we can go to the Yahoo Finance site and download the historical data for the NIFTY50 index.


When Data Science Meets Technical SEO - insideBIGDATA

#artificialintelligence

In this special guest feature, Vincent Terrasi, Product Director at OnCrawl, discusses what happens when data science and machine learning meets SEO. Vincent became Product Director for OnCrawl after having been Data Marketing Manager at OVH. He is also the co-founder of dataseolabs.com He has a very varied background with 7 years of entrepreneurship for his own sites, then 3 years at M6Web and 3 years at OVH as Data Marketing Manager. Data science crosses paths with both big data and artificial intelligence when it comes to analyzing and processing data known as datasets.